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| #873825 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:37 PM 02.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016 ...HERMINE HEADING INTO THE LOW COUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 81.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Nassau Sound to south of Fenwick Island * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to west of Watch Hill * Southern Delaware Bay Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations inland over southeastern Georgia near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with a gradual reduction in forward speed expected on Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Hermine will move across coastal South Carolina later today, move over coastal North Carolina tonight, and move offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday morning. Strengthening is forecast once the center of Hermine moves offshore Saturday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the east of the center. CORMP buoy 41033, located about 20 miles east-northeast of Hilton Head, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (94 km/h). An automated station at Malcom McKinnon airport on St. Simons Island in Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast today through Saturday. Tropical storm wind gusts are possible near the center of Hermine through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA border to Bridgeport, Connecticut...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the southeastern United States and portions of the lower mid-Atlantic states from southern and eastern Georgia into South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Across southeast Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore of Virginia and Maryland, storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Rain bands south of Hermine are expected to bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of central and northern Florida. Heavy rainfall could reach the coastal areas of Delaware and New Jersey beginning Saturday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across coastal portions of North and South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
