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| #873890 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 02.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 A 2222 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that Gaston was producing maximum winds of 30-35 kt in its southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt, but Gaston won't be a tropical storm for much longer. The last bit of deep convection dissipated around 1800 UTC, so the cyclone is likely to be declared post-tropical Saturday morning. The remnant low is likely to maintain 30-kt winds until it dissipates in 36 hours, based on guidance from the global models. The initial motion is 070/14 kt. The remnant low is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate away from the Azores during the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The track models agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 40.1N 28.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 41.1N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 43.3N 23.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
