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| #874191 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 06.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, based on data collected by the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters earlier this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is largely based on guidance from the global models, and shows dissipation by 72 hours. The cyclone is now moving westward, closer to the coastline, at about 7 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a mid- to upper-level low to its south. Hermine is expected to slow down later today, and it will likely stall tonight as it merges with the upper low. By Wednesday, a turn to the north and then northeast is predicted as a shortwave trough approaches the system. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the west this cycle to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane, an ASCAT overpass, and surface observations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.6N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1800Z 39.5N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1800Z 39.8N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0600Z 40.3N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
