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| #874840 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 14.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Julia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms primarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this activity has become a little more separated from the center overnight. The strong winds that occurred during the evening along the northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast of southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting wind gusts to tropical storm force. Julia should gradually weaken during the next day or so due to continued land interaction and westerly shear. The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low on Thursday. This is supported by the global models, which show the low filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36 hours. Julia is moving northward at about 6 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern Georgia during the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 30.9N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 31.6N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 31.9N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 32.1N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 32.2N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
