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| #874866 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 14.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D Doppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast. Since the system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest D-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. There is a possibility, however, that the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water. The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast, although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt. The tropical cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days. The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and is east of the previous NHC track. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 32.2N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 32.3N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 32.3N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
