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| #874895 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 14.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 The storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with little deep convection over the western and southern portions of the circulation. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data. Since the system is expected to be over water for the next couple of days, some strengthening is now possible. However the vertical shear, which is currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models to increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours. This strong shear should limit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest official forecast. The NHC forecast is also very close to the latest intensity model consensus. Visible satellite images and surface observations indicate that the cyclone continues moving northeastward, or around 040/5 kt. Julia is likely to remain in a weak steering environment, near the axis of the subtropical ridge, for the next few days. Most of the track guidance shows a slow and erratic motion, and the GFS and ECMWF global models depict the system looping back to the coast in several days. This is also shown in the latest official track forecast, which is shifted considerably east of the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.1N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 32.3N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 32.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 32.2N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 32.0N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 32.2N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 32.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
