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| #874943 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Westerly shear of about 25 knots has advected dry air over Julia and removed all of the deep convection from the cyclone center, with the coldest cloud tops now more than 100 n mi to the east. Coastal observations have shown the winds decreasing overnight, with most locations now reporting sustained winds of 20 to 25 kt. Based on these data, Julia is downgraded to a depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt, which is in agreement with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Despite the cyclone being situated over warm SSTs, persistent shear and dry air should result in little change in intensity during the next few days. Remnant low status is forecast at 72 hours, but this could occur much sooner if organized deep convection does not return. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 4-5 days, consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Julia has moved little overnight, and the initial motion estimate is a slow eastward drift at 2 kt. The shallow cyclone is expected to continue drifting eastward today and then meander in weak steering currents until dissipation. This forecast is based on the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks and is similar to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 32.0N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 32.0N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 31.9N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 31.9N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 32.0N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
