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| #874967 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 New convection has formed near and east of the center of Julia during the past few hours, although the low-level center remains partially exposed due to westerly vertical wind shear. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 30 and 35 kt respectively, while various objective estimates are 35-45 kt. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but there is a possibility that this is conservative. After not moving much overnight, the center of Julia has jumped eastward this morning. The overall long-term motion is 095/7, but the short-term motion is significantly faster than that. The forecast guidance is in good agreement that Julia should move little after 12 hours, and the new track forecast is based on the premise that the current forward speed will decrease by the 12 hours point. The new forecast track has the same general idea as the previous track, but the area where Julia will meander is now forecast to be about 90 n mi farther east than in the previous forecast. Julia is forecast to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly shear for the next four days or so, and this is expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one, as well as the GFS and ECMWF models, in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. It should be noted that the shear could decrease after 96 hours, and the UKMET and Canadian models forecast re-intensification at that time. However, at this time it appears unlikely that the cyclone will survive long enough to take advantage of the possibly more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 31.8N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 31.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 31.7N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 31.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
