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| #874994 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 PM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Julia and reported estimated surface winds of 35-40 kt from the SFMR instrument in the northeast quadrant, along with a central pressure of 1007 mb. The maximum flight-level winds at 850 mb were 34 kt. Based on a blend of the surface estimates and flight-level winds, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The aircraft reported a sharp trough extending to the east of the center, and the storm is producing vigorous convective bursts near the center and along the trough. Julia continues to move generally eastward or 085/7, possibly due to the reformation of the center caused by the convective bursts. The track guidance continues to forecast that the cyclone will slow its forward motion in the next 12 hours, after which it will move very little through 72-96 hours. Based on this premise, which so far has not come to pass, the new forecast track will keep Julia moving east for 12 hours and then show a loop from 12-96 hours. The new forecast area of meandering is about 60 n mi east of that from the previous forecast. Julia is likely to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly shear from 12-84 hours, and this is expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. If Julia survives the extended period of shear, the environment should become more favorable after 84 hours, and the system could re-intensify as forecast by the UKMET and Canadian models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.1N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 32.0N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.5N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
