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| #875016 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Just like it occurred last night, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed the convection from the center of Julia again tonight. Satellite images show that the circulation is still vigorous, and it is generously assumed that tropical-storm-force winds are occuring well to the east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. The strong shear is forecast to persist, and the most likely solution is for Julia to maintain the same intensity for another 12 hours or so, and then gradually decay as indicated in the previous NHC forecast. It is worth noting that the SHIPS and LGEM models maintain Julia as tropical storm for the next 3 days, but the given the strong shear predicted by these models, their solution does not appear to be realistic. The tight swirl of low clouds defining the center of Julia has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 120 degrees at 4 kt. However, the steering currents are expected to be weak, and the NHC forecast calls for Julia to meander during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Julia is expected to be a remnant low, and probably will begin to drift northeastward, embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Since the steering currents are likely to be weak and poorly defined, the track models are showing divergent solutions, varying from northeast to southwest tracks, and some show no motion at all. The discrepancy in the models increases the uncertainty of the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 31.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 31.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 31.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
