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| #875021 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:16 PM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 Ian has continued to accelerate northeastward within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and strong shortwave trough, and this general motion is expected for the next 2 days until the system becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and remains near the center of the tightly clustered NHC model guidance, close to the GFS and ECMWF consensus. The initial intensity remains at 45 kt based a 16/0034Z ASCAT-B overpass that contained few 43-kt wind vectors southeast of the well-defined low-level center. Ian is forecast to merge with a baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the next 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous advisory based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 42.9N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 46.9N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/0000Z 53.3N 31.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 58.9N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 63.3N 15.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
