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| #875036 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 16.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Deep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center of Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this could be a little generous. The shear will remain strong for the next 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry mid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to remnant low status. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and reflects this thinking. Julia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion estimate is 135/04. The cyclone is expected to meander erratically for the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the period the remnant low should begin to move northeastward. Not surprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the direction of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the track forecast remains large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 30.8N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 30.9N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.0N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 31.2N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
