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| #875086 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 16.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Satellite data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Julia has lost organization since this time yesterday. The winds have decreased in most parts of the circulation, and the center is now well exposed to the west of the main area of convection. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 1008 mb and SFMR surface wind estimates of 35 kt within 30 n mi of the center over the northern semicircle. These data are the basis for keeping the initial intensity 35 kt. The intensity forecast remains low confidence. Currently, Julia is in an environment of 25-35 kt of westerly vertical shear, and this hostile environment should continue for the next 48 hours. After that time, the guidance remains in good agreement that the shear should decrease. However, it is in poor agreement as to what that means for the cyclone. The Canadian and UKMET continue to forecast a stronger system, while the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF forecast Julia to dissipate or remain weak. Given the current trends, there is no change to the dissipation scenario used in the intensity forecast. However, this forecast again is on the low edge of the intensity guidance, and there remains a chance that Julia will survive and re-intensify. Julia appears to finally have stopped its eastward motion, and the initial motion is now a somewhat uncertain 190/3. In the next day or so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west by the low-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, a baroclinic trough moving into the northeastern United States should weaken the ridge and allow Julia, or its remnants, to turn northward and eventually northeastward. There remains a significant spread between the much faster Canadian and ECMWF models and the slower GFS and UKMET models. The new forecast track favors a lower solution and keeps Julia moving at less than 5 kt before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 30.8N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.7N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.8N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 31.1N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 33.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 33.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
