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| #875111 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 16.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Deja vu all over again. Julia lost all its deep convection tonight and now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds. Assuming that the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of convection develops near the center despite the strong westerly shear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by strong upper-level westerlies. Given that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days or so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the shear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the cyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is expected to be a remnant low. There has been no significant motion during the past day or so, and basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in very light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to change, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling around for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
