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| #875130 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 17.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Julia continues to consist of a swirl of low clouds, and although there have been a few intermittent showers, the cyclone has been without organized deep convection since around 2100 UTC yesterday. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds of 26-27 kt on the north side of the circulation, so the initial intensity is set to 25 kt for this advisory. If organized deep convection does not return, Julia will likely become a remnant low later today. Given that shear of 20-30 kt is forecast to continue over Julia for the next 36-48 hours, it seems unlikely that the cyclone will recover, although occasional bursts of convection are possible. The latest ECMWF fields show Julia dissipating in a couple of days, with the GFS holding onto a weak low into day 4. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows the remnant low dissipating in 72 hours, but this could occur sooner. After drifting southwestward earlier, Julia has been stationary recently. Steering currents will remain weak, but the shallow cyclone should gradually turn northwestward and northward as a low-level ridge currently north of Julia weakens during the next 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.1N 76.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.3N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0600Z 30.6N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 31.1N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 31.6N 77.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
