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| #875153 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 17.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in thin bands closer to the center. This is just enough to keep the cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory. In the short term, the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less. The dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take advantage of the more favorable environment. Thus, the intensity forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours. The depression is currently nearly stationary. A low- to mid-level ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for the remainder of the system`s life. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.2N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 32.2N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
