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| #875172 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 17.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Despite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce enough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low. It appears that a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the depression is providing a more favorable environment for convection than anticipated earlier. The dynamical models forecast this trough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several hours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and subsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity. The only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour point, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as a remnant low through that time. Julia is now drifting northwestward. A low- to mid-level ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for the remainder of the system`s life. The new forecast track is sifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight westward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 30.5N 76.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 32.2N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 32.7N 77.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 33.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
