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| #875174 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 17.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016 Convection continues to flare up and down near the center of Karl, with a larger mass well to the northeast of the center. In addition, the circulation looks more elongated than earlier today, perhaps due to the convective asymmetry. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt since the system does not look all that different, although the satellite classifications are a bit lower. Karl could still weaken a little bit in the short term while the cyclone is in a recovery stage from its interaction with an upper-level low. Gradual strengthening is then forecast by early next week as the storm encounters very warm water, low shear, and a marginal moisture environment. Model guidance is very similar to the previous cycle, except for the ECMWF which shows a more powerful cyclone by day 5. Very little change was made to the official forecast, which continues to be most similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models. The initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous one, 265/11. Karl should begin to gain some latitude by Monday as it moves around the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday due to the orientation of the ridge, and this motion could continue for the rest of the 5-day period. The biggest change since the last cycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the central Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward motion. The track models have shifted westward at long range, and the official forecast is moved in that direction, but not as far west as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 18.1N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.9N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.8N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.1N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 20.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
