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| #875375 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 19.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016 The coverage of deep convection associated with the depression has decreased somewhat during the past several hours, but the circulation remains well established with several fragmented curved bands. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic is expected to persist for the next several days due to a series of shortwave troughs moving through the area. As a result, a continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected throughout the forecast period. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track prediction lies on the left side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model. The environmental conditions for strengthening during the next several days are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be light and waters warm during the next couple of days, the atmosphere is not overly moist in the vicinity of the depression. These conditions should allow for slow strengthening during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, however, the system is expected to move in less favorable conditions of stronger shear, even drier air, and more marginal SSTs. These conditions should halt strengthening and induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the intensity model consensus for the first few days, but is lower than the consensus at days 4 and 5 given the expected hostile conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.0N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.2N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 25.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown |
