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| #875461 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 20.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016 Karl continues to struggle this evening. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center of the storm is completely exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Karl earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 35 kt, though a very recent ASCAT pass suggests that this estimate could be a bit generous. Dropsonde data and model vertical cross sections indicate that Karl is being affected by mid-level southwesterly flow and dry air induced by a cut-off low pressure system located a few hundred miles to the west. These unfavorable atmospheric conditions have been affecting the cyclone during the past several days and until these conditions abate, little change in the structure or strength of Karl is anticipated. The models insist that environment should become less hostile in about 24 h, and Karl should have its best opportunity to intensify late this week and this weekend when it moves into an area of baroclinic forcing. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm has moved basically due west during the past 24 hours. A turn toward the northwest should occur on Wednesday when the cyclone nears the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge, followed by a northward motion in about 3 days when Karl rounds the ridge and moves into a pronounced weakness. By the end of the forecast period, a sharp increase in speed and turn to the northeast are expected as a large-scale mid-latitude trough picks up the tropical cyclone. There are significant forward speed differences in the models associated with how Karl interacts with the large-scale trough in the 3 to 5 day time frame, and the NHC forecast is of low confidence during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.9N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.9N 58.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.5N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 25.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 29.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 39.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
