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| #875678 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 AM 23.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined. Tonight`s upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb. A NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level wind of 61 kt. These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt. Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear. After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current organization trend. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of 325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer to Bermuda in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tightly packed model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.9N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 29.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 31.5N 64.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 48.0N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Avila |
