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| #876161 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 28.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016 Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation. The aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models in deepening the system. Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are significant differences among the track models as to when the turn takes place and how sharp it will be. The GFS takes the cyclone northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For now, the NHC track lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
