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| #876396 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 30.Sep.2016) TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 70SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
