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| #876397 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 30.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near Jamaica on Sunday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
