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| #876489 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 01.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...POWERFUL MATTHEW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 73.4W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of eastern Cuba later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 73.4 West. While Matthew has been moving erratically for the past couple of hours, overall the center has drifted southward at around 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster motion toward the west should resume later today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by tonight. A turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Sunday, with northward motion expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Barranquilla. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
