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| #876504 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 01.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND MUCH OF HAITI... ...MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. The Meteorological Service of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for eastern Cuba from the province of Camaguey southeastward to the province of Guantanamo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew is currently drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwestward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed are expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday or Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible the hurricane watch areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
