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| #876511 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 PM 01.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW BARELY MOVING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located by satellite near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Matthew has barely moved during past few hours, but a slow northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
