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| #876604 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 02.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning, Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance. The eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a bit more symmetric. Consistent with these changes, observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some strengthening has taken place. The advisory intensity is set to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft. Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in intensity. However, interactions with land should cause some weakening during the next couple of days. Aside from that, some fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours, but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package. Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left. In general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before. This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus. Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.7N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 23.6N 75.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 26.8N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 30.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
