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| #876681 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 03.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of 14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the next 5 days. Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a little left of the latest multi-model consensus. While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan |
