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| #876706 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 03.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 74.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island, and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 74.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
