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| #876754 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 04.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt. Matthew is expected to move generally northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge today and tonight. This will bring the center of Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of the hurricane. Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east coast of the United States late in the period. Most of the dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane during the entire 5 day period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.8N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 79.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 31.7N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi |
