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| #876808 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 04.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole`s cloud pattern hasn`t changed much since earlier today. All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt. Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction. This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
