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| #876843 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 04.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with the low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of a long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot. Dvorak classifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Although over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days, Nicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to its east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much weakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying. By about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and it is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by that time or shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical model output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and then weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status throughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF solution, which shows this possibility. The initial motion is 300/05. Nicole is expected to move west-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high located east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a mid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast is forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause the cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96 hours. Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is likely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the United States east coast. The new track forecast is shifted to the east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has moved in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 24.2N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
