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| #876874 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 05.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 Nicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear. Satellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area of deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nicole is expected to remain in strong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane Matthew during the next few days, which should prevent the storm from strengthening. Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come into better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally shows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the northwest is likely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that time, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with the cut off upper-level low. The NHC track forecast closely follows a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.3N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 26.8N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 27.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
