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| #877002 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 06.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole is maintaining its intensity. The cloud pattern has generally changed little since the previous advisory, and it consists of a central dense overcast feature with some curved bands to the east of the center. Earlier microwave data did show a mid-level eye, but this feature is not apparent in geostationary satellite images. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, and therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt. Although not explicitly forecast, Nicole could reach hurricane strength today before it moves into an area of stronger shear on Friday. The expected increase in shear and a drier air mass should lead to a slow weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is in line with the bulk of the guidance. Nicole is still moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A trough currently off the coast of New England is expected to move southeastward and erode the ridge. This pattern change will likely leave Nicole in weak steering currents beginning in about 24 hours. As a result, the storm is expected to move slowly and erratically throughout much of the forecast period. The guidance is very divergent and shows solutions in nearly every direction. The NHC official track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Given the large model spread, the NHC track forecast is of low confidence. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were modified based on an ASCAT pass around 0100 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 26.5N 64.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 27.3N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 27.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 27.8N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 27.2N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.7N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
