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| #877036 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 06.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016 Nicole`s cloud pattern hasn`t changed much since the last advisory, and consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm. Dvorak classifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity estimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory intensity is held at 60 kt. Although Nicole could reach hurricane strength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance. The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to be about 325/5 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast of Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops southward into the area. This will leave the tropical cyclone in weak steering currents within the next day or so. A high pressure area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole during the next couple of days, and this should force some southward component of motion. Overall, however, the official forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion throughout the period. This is in reasonable agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 26.8N 64.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 27.5N 65.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 26.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 27.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
