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| #877173 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 07.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...WESTERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING CAPE CANAVERAL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 80.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Jupiter Inlet south to Boca Raton has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Boca Raton, as well as for Lake Okeechobee. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Anna Maria Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Jupiter Inlet to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * North of South Santee River to Surf City * Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Anclote River Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this morning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of Florida today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was reported at Melbourne, Florida. NOAA buoy 41009 off Cape Canaveral recently reported a sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida east coast today. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected later today. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside during the day. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the northwestern Bahamas...with isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the east-central Florida coast today. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
