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| #877239 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:55 PM 07.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW LASHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 80.7W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cocoa Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 80.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the United States on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Ponte Vedra, and a coastal marine observing station at St. Augustine recently measured a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h). A tidal gauge at Fernandina Beach reported a storm surge inundation of 3.11 feet above mean higher high water. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 4 to 6 ft Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Cocoa Beach, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
