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| #877325 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 AM 08.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING DUE NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN SOUTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA, AND GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds are now occurring along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River northeastward to Charleston. The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches). Buoy 41008 recently reported a pressure of 957 mb (28.26 inches) inside the northwestern portion of Matthew's eye. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida should subside later this morning. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding. Nearly 14 inches of rainfall has been measured thus far at Hunter Army Airfield in Savannah, Georgia. TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible near the South Carolina coast through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
