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| #877429 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 08.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 A tremendous burst of deep convection has developed this afternoon, partially covering and southeast of Nicole`s low-level center. A late-morning ASCAT pass indicated 41-kt uncontaminated wind vectors east of the center, and given the recent burst of convection, the initial intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt. This is in agreement with latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 195/05. A blocking ridge north of Nicole should keep Nicole moving on this general course for another 12 hours or so, though its forward speed should begin to decrease. As the ridge shifts to the northeast of Nicole by late tomorrow, the cyclone should reverse its motion 180 degrees and begin moving north-northwestward. The global models continue to show a binary interaction between Matthew or its remnants in 2 to 3 days, but the ECMWF no longer is drawing Nicole as far west as it was previously. A turn toward the north and then northeast is expected by days 4 and 5. The track guidance has come into much better agreement and has resulted in a more confident track forecast this cycle. The new forecast track is slower than the previous one and shifted a bit to the east but not as far east as the model consensus aids. As high as the vertical shear has been over Nicole, it is puzzling that no additional weakening has taken place. At a minimum, the strong northerly shear should preclude significant intensification in the short term. A nominal decrease in the shear over the next couple of days could allow Nicole to re-intensify, perhaps more than indicated in this forecast. A more substantial reduction of the shear is forecast by 72 hours, and a re-intensification of the cyclone seems more likely than it did earlier on days 3 and 4, similar to what the global models have been showing. By the end of the forecast period, increasing shear could cause the intensity to level off. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is generally near the multi-model consensus. It continues to be of low confidence after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 24.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 30.4N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 33.9N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
