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| #877471 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 08.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 Strong convection continues to fire near the center of Nicole, although microwave data still suggest the center is on the northern edge of the convection. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt for this advisory, so the initial wind speed is held at 45 kt. Northerly wind shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days, perhaps at a slightly weaker value than the current 35 kt. By about Tuesday, almost all of the global models drop the shear significantly, which will probably allow Nicole to restrengthen since it will be moving over very warm waters. The guidance is more insistent on this cycle that Nicole will become a hurricane again by day 4, and the official forecast goes with this scenario. The initial motion is 180/4, a little to the left of earlier. Nicole should meander for a day or so before a ridge to the east builds, causing the tropical cyclone to move slowly northward until about day 2. Some interaction with the remnants of Matthew are likely to steer Nicole to the northwest for about a day until Nicole turns back to the north and northeast in increasing southwesterly flow. Models are in good agreement on this unusual Atlantic track scenario, so very little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 24.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
