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| #877472 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 08.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast north of Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. All warnings are discontinued west of Little River Inlet on the South Carolina-North Carolina border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. An eastward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should move near or south of the coast of North Carolina tonight and east of the North Carolina coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, although Matthew could become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. Weakening is expected Sunday and Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 81 mph (130 km/h) was recently reported by a private weather station at Federal Point, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on a combination of aircraft and surface data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the hurricane warning area tonight and then subside during the day on Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina later tonight and Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft Along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts southwest of Matthew's center, inundation caused by Matthew's storm surge will slowly recede today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Murrells Inlet, South Carolina to Salvo, North Carolina including portions of the Pamlico Sound. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Salvo to Duck, North Carolina including portions of the Albemarle Sound. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches from northeast South Carolina into northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia, with possible isolated totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall is producing record-breaking flooding over portions of eastern North Carolina, and it may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding elsewhere across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
