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| #877716 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 11.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 The cloud pattern has not become any better organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is located on the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity and the Dvorak estimates have remained steady. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The wind radii were decreased based on recent ASCAT passes. Nicole is expected to move over warm waters and into weaker shear conditions during the next 48 hours. This environment should result in strengthening and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus, which is not as aggressive as the GFS and the ECMWF intensity forecasts. After that time, the cyclone should become embedded within very strong wind shear, and a gradual weakening process should begin. By the end of the forecast period, Nicole should have become a large extratropical low. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 335 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are weak and Nicole should turn toward the north and move slowly around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. By 48 hours, the cyclone will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow and should turn to the northeast with a some increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.1N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 28.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.5N 66.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 36.0N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 42.0N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
