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| #877872 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 12.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon. The eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a result, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates were slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning`s reconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt, which is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the hurricane`s intensity. Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the hurricane through tonight could allow for some additional strengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane strength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening. Strong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause Nicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected to keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period. There is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to how much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have late in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low confidence at that time. Nicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane will be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the core of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72 hours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which should cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 29.2N 66.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 34.6N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 36.6N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 38.8N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 16/1800Z 38.8N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown |
