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| #878025 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 14.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 The cloud pattern has degraded significantly during the past few hours. The low-level center is difficult to locate, but it appears to be separated and well to the southwest of an area of weakening convection due to southwesterly shear. This is supported by an ASCAT pass a few hours ago, which showed the vigorous surface circulation to the southwest of the limited thunderstorm activity. Based on Dvorak T-numbers which are weakening as fast as the rules allow, and data from ASCAT, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. Although Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due to the strong shear and low SSTs, global models indicate that the system should remain a powerful cyclone for a few days. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. It is expected that Nicole becomes a post-tropical cyclone is about 24 hours or so, but it is uncertain when Nicole will complete the extratropical transition. The best estimate of the initial motion is be 065/18. Nicole is well embedded within the mid-latitude flow, and this pattern should steer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next day or so. Some decrease in forward speed is anticipated beyond 36 hours while Nicole interacts with passing shortwaves. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope primarily during the next 2 to 3 days. The post-tropical portion of Nicole`s track, intensity, and wind radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 35.4N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 36.5N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 37.7N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 15/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/0600Z 39.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/0600Z 39.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/0600Z 42.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/0600Z 48.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila |
