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| #878186 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 15.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 Nicole appears to be trying to develop some inner-core convection with cloud tops cooling near the center during the past several hours. Although there is cold advection occurring on the back side of the cyclone, recent AMSU data confirm that Nicole has a well-defined warm core. CIMSS intensity estimates from the AMSU data indicated that Nicole was still producing maximum winds between 68-77 kt, and the latest classification from TAFB increased from six hours ago. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt. Global model fields show that Nicole is likely to maintain its warm core for another 48 hours. Even though sea surface temperatures will be decreasing from 24C to 20C during that time, upper-level temperatures will also be cooling, which should keep the environment unstable enough for Nicole to generate convection within its core. Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities. Nicole is expected to lose its warm core and become extratropical by 72 hours, and it should then be absorbed by another weather system by 120 hours between Iceland and Greenland. Nicole`s center has turned eastward and slowed down with an initial motion of 080/9 kt. Nicole is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north, and it is therefore expected to move only slowly eastward or northeastward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate toward the north-northeast and north between 48-96 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus models and not too different from the previous forecast. Nicole`s initial tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on a recent ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 39.4N 48.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 39.9N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 43.8N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 53.7N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z 63.0N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
