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| #878280 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 16.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 Cloud tops have continued to cool around Nicole`s eye, and the eye itself has become a little more distinct during the past several hours. AMSU data from 2029 UTC yielded a CIMSS intensity estimate of 71 kt, and since the convective pattern has improved since the last advisory, it is assumed that the cyclone has not lost any strength. The maximum winds therefore remain 70 kt. Global models fields indicate that Nicole should maintain its deep warm core for at least another 24 hours. By 36 hours, however, the cyclone is likely to become attached to a nearby frontal zone to its west, at which point Nicole would become extratropical. Neither the global models nor the SHIPS and LGEM models show much weakening during the next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to maintain hurricane intensity for the next 48 hours. Some weakening is forecast by day 3 with Nicole moving over very cold water, and then the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low by day 4 while it moves between Iceland and Greenland. No changes were made to the updated NHC intensity forecast compared to the previous advisory. Nicole took a jog toward the north since the last advisory, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 040/8 kt. A shortwave trough moving eastward across Quebec is expected to emerge off the coast of Atlantic Canada late tomorrow, with the preceding flow causing Nicole to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast by 36 hours. A north-northeastward motion should continue up until the time Nicole is absorbed by the larger extratropical low near Greenland. The updated NHC track forecast lies near the TVCN multi-model consensus, and it was nudged a bit west of the previous forecast primarily to account for the recent northward jog. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 40.5N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 41.6N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 44.3N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 48.9N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z 53.6N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 62.2N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |
