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| #878326 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 17.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane. The latest satellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of deep convection around the eye and to the west of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt, therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Nicole will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday when it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact with a frontal zone. Little change in intensity is expected even after post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to become an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward, which should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. The main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much of the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 41.4N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 43.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 48.2N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.4N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 57.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
