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| #878353 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 17.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Although Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is is steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become elongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened considerably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops to -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at T4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. Nicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which should extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a result, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or Tuesday morning. The initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked up by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As the amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane is forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight, followed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the cyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the next three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in best agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 42.7N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 45.4N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 51.0N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 56.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 61.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart |
