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| #8791 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 ...IVAN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA AND WEAKENING... AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IVAN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IN DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 72 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN THROUGH SATURDAY. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN EASTERN ALABAMA... THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE... WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...32.0 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
